Global ecommerce trend forecast 2012

Over the last 12 months, the ecommerce sector has rallied against challenging economic conditions and driven innovation in business and shopping models. A flurry of technical innovations, most notably the emergence and rapid adoption of smartphone and tablet technology, has transformed the shopper-seller relationship. Fuelled by mobile technology, ecommerce growth shows no sign of abating. JP Morgan estimates that global ecommerce revenue will hit $963 billion (£628 billion) next year. So what will fuel this growth? Japan-based Rakuten, whose shopping spree last year included UK-based Play.com, German ecommerce platform Tradoria and Canadian ebook company Kobo, suggests six key trends:

1. Tablet and mobile retail therapy
In 2011, web-enabled mobile devices transformed ecommerce, opening up a new 24/7 channel to the consumer and creating innovative new ways to engage them, from QR codes to location-based offers. In 2012, mcommerce will continue to gather momentum, but it is “t-commerce” that’s particularly exciting. The rich functionality of the tablet shifts the traditionally transactional and bargain-hunting online experience into a virtual store experience, making the web an almost tactile experience. Better still, mobile commerce is not exclusively for big brands with big budgets. Thanks to affiliate services and marketplaces, merchants large and small can harness the mobile channel without incurring heavy infrastructure costs. Gartner estimates that by 2013, smart mobile web devices will overtake the total number of PCs in use, exceeding 1.8 billion.

2. Bricks and mortar in the cloud
The boundaries between online and offline worlds are becoming increasingly blurred as retailers fuse their digital and real-world offerings. Barcode scanning services such as ShopSavvy help users find the best deal by allowing them to scan the barcode and search for better offers online. However, the challenge with these applications is they fail to reward the store whose display instigated the purchase. To avoid cannibalising the high street we believe a new system must emerge in 2012 that rewards offline and online ecosystems.

3. Shopping with your social network
Getting a second opinion before committing to a purchase is nothing new, but now rather than taking a friend shopping you can take your entire social network with you. Retailers are becoming increasingly aware of the power of “the fan” and social will form an integral part of the ecommerce evolution in 2012. What’s more retailers are now using social not just for brand awareness, but for product development and customer service too.

4. Borderless shopping communities
This year will see the rise of the local global e-marketplace. In 2012, international marketplace models will provide sellers of all sizes around the world with the opportunity to expand their operations internationally, without the cost-intensive outlay traditionally associated with establishing local delivery models, storage facilities and suchlike. Sellers will be able to dabble in international shopping communities and dedicate resources based on real-world demand. This will open up opportunities with burgeoning markets, such as China, India and Brazil. In late 2011, Rakuten surveyed international interest in shopping globally online and the results revealed that consumers are open to borderless shopping. Brazil is leading the global e-shopping charge with 81 percent of consumers keen to shop in different markets online, followed by Indonesia (77 percent), Thailand (74 percent), China (69 percent) and Spain (66 percent).

5. Flexible, local shipping models
According to a report by Forrester in January 2011, shipping issues are one of the most common reasons for cart abandonment in Europe. It’s true that the internet has created a global marketplace, but local market shopping preferences must be taken into account. In Indonesia for example, locals are reluctant to pay online, so to combat this Rakuten set up a shipping model, of local bike couriers, who collected payment on arrival. In 2012, flexible shopping models will be vital for growth, as evidenced by the growing popularity of the click and collect phenomenon, which according to reports accounted for more than 10 percent of all UK ecommerce sales this past Christmas.

6. Online shopping gets personal
Gone are the days when retailers tracked consumer behaviour based on loyalty points. Today’s online retailers can acquire huge volumes of data on both their potential and existing customers based on user browsing habits alone.  In 2012, data exchange between retailers and social networks will begin to provide solid business models for social platforms and offer new insights into the psyche of the shopper.  What matters most to retailers, however, is how their marketing teams translate this wealth of data into meaningful and timely communications with customers. The web generation is already jaded from a surfeit of push advertising; to truly engage consumers in 2012 and beyond, retailers must learn how to harness user specific data to provide timely, relevant and personalised communications.